It’s probably just as well that this column wasn’t written in the immediate aftermath of the Rams’ loss at Tampa Bay on Sunday. If it had been, I fear it would have become a “fire the coach, fire the GM, trade the players, sell the team’ diatribe.
Sometimes the concept of “Overreaction Monday” is overrated.
But a day later, it’s still clear. Halfway through the NFL’s 18-week season, the defending champs are still standing but on the ropes. Sunday’s 16-13 loss to the Bucs was the latest testament to the importance of (a) a functioning offensive line and (b) a functioning running game – exemplified by the Rams’ lack of both – and has put the defending Super Bowl champions in a hole.
The good news? The NFL is awash in mediocrity in 2022, and even at 3-5, the Rams could still worm their way into the postseason. But the schedule is tricky.
They still face road games at New Orleans (3-5 before its Monday night game with Baltimore), Kansas City (6-2) and Green Bay (3-6), plus their divisional home-and-home matchup with NFC West leader Seattle (6-3) and resurgent quarterback Geno Smith.
One remaining home game is a Thursday night against Las Vegas, meaning the shortest trip of the year for the SoCal chapter of Raider Nation and another evening of silent counts. And the Rams’ next-to-last “road” game is New Year’s Day at SoFi Stadium against the 5-3 Chargers, who have been equally unpredictable this year.
There are no running back reinforcements about to join the Rams, no inspired acquisitions like C.J. Anderson in 2018 or Sony Michel last year. There were certainly opportunities at the trade deadline, but General Manager Les Snead opted to stay the course. How much will he regret that if this season continues on its current pace?
The offensive line remains a work in – well, it’s hard to call it progress, with eight different lineups in eight games and probably a ninth this week against Arizona.
And that final possession on Sunday, when the Rams needed to get just one first down to put the game away but couldn’t do it? That’s illustrative of an offense that has just one dependable weapon (All-Pro receiver Cooper Kupp) and constantly finds itself in challenging situations.
Darrell Henderson had 56 rushing yards on 12 carries on Sunday, and no teammate had more than 9 yards. The Rams were 4 for 15 in third-down efficiency, with eight three-and-outs. They had 206 yards all told, and 68 on the ground.
They were as close to winning as they were because their defense kept stepping up until Tampa Bay’s final possession. But at that point that unit was pretty much worn to a nub, leading to Tom Brady’s 60-yards-in-35-seconds drive for the winning score.
So no wonder Jalen Ramsey was frustrated afterward, saying more urgency was required and adding, “We don’t got games to spare, like this ain’t the NBA.” He also noted there were too many times when the defense would come off the field after getting a stop and be told to stay ready because they’d have to go right back out again, and he suggested – in language not suitable for live TV – that the offense could use some “dogs” strong-willed enough to be closers.
Coach Sean McVay was asked about those comments during his Monday postmortem. How could he disagree with what has been so apparent?
“Jalen is a great competitor,” McVay said. “He would say the same thing on the defensive side of the ball if the roles were reversed. … That’s consistent with his demeanor and I know where he’s coming from in terms of wanting to win, wanting to compete and wanting his teammates to expect to do well and have the confidence to close out those games.”
In other words, if the head coach asked him to cool it, that would remain between them.
But the numbers backed up Ramsey’s point. The Rams spent much of Sunday in third-and-long situations. On their final six possessions (not counting their lateral-heavy final play as time expired), they failed to convert on third-and-7, third-and-17, third-and-19, third-and-11, third-and-15 and the third-and-5 that could have secured the game but didn’t.
“When we’re in manageable situations, I think we do well with that,” receiver Allen Robinson said. “We have a lot of playmakers who are able to do that. But at the end of the day, what do you call on third-and-17, third-and-19, even third-and-13 or 12?”
McVay suggested “changes” in his remarks following Sunday’s game. By Monday afternoon, he said he hadn’t gotten to it yet.
But the remaining weeks will be either an inspiring comeback story or will get pretty ugly. Sunday’s game at SoFi against Arizona – facing its own issues with a 3-6 record – is going to be a get-right game for somebody. If it’s not the Rams, this thing could go south quickly.
“This is not for lack of competing as hard as these guys can,” McVay said. But, he added later, “There’s enough stuff that isn’t going away that we want that you can’t just say, ‘Hey, we’re just this one thing away from being able to get it fixed.’ We’re working through that right now.”
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There hasn’t been a repeat Super Bowl winner in 18 seasons, since the New England Patriots repeated in XXXVIII and XXXIX (the 2003 and ’04 seasons, respectively). The Rams seem to be showing us in real-time why those repeats are so difficult.
Yet this is such a weird NFL season. Take away the Philadelphia Eagles (8-0) and Minnesota Vikings (7-1) at the top, and the Detroit Lions, Las Vegas Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers, Carolina Panthers and Houston Texans at the bottom, and everyone else is within three games in the standings at the midway point. Of the league’s 32 teams, 17 are under .500, and in the NFC 10 of 16 are below break-even. Any given Sunday, indeed.
Yet the Rams are 2½ games behind Seattle and in addition to the head-to-head meetings have a game in hand. And with their struggles, the Rams are still a game out of the NFC’s seventh and final playoff spot (although that’s currently occupied by the 4-4 San Francisco 49ers, and the less said about that the better.)
Still, anything’s possible. So I asked McVay on Monday’s Zoom call: Is the NFC West still a winnable division?
“I would say that for us, we have to play better football,” he said. “…I would never say that there’s not an opportunity for us to do that, but we’ve got to start handling our business the right way for that to be a conversation that has merit to it.”
Fair enough.
jalexander@scng.com