Election 2022: Race to become L.A. mayor tightens as more votes are counted

The gap between real estate developer Rick Caruso and U.S. Rep. Karen Bass narrowed to half a percentage point on Thursday, Nov. 10, underscoring just how much of a nail-biter the contest to become the next mayor of Los Angeles has been.

Caruso had captured 273,941 (50.25%) of the votes while Bass had received 271,246 (49.75%) of the votes tabulated as of Thursday afternoon, according to the latest semi-official results from the L.A. County registrar’s office.

Before this week’s general election, political observers had predicted this would be a close matchup. Indeed, since Tuesday night, when the first set of election results trickled in, the two candidates have taken turns leading – though never by more than 2.5 percentage points.

It will likely be days, if not weeks, before it will be known who will succeed Eric Garcetti as the 43rd mayor of L.A.

With just 2,695 votes separating the candidates on Thursday, and with many more ballots left to count, it’s anybody’s guess at this point who will prevail – though the Bass campaign expressed confidence that it would be the congresswoman.

“In the coming days, the voice of the people of Los Angeles will be heard and we feel confident that we will win,” Sarah Leonard Sheahan, communications director for the Bass campaign, said in a statement. “As mayor, Karen Bass will chart a new direction for Los Angeles with comprehensive solutions for homelessness, public safety and affordability.”

During the June primary election, early returns had Bass trailing Caruso by 5 percentage points, though in June she ultimately overtook him by 7 points.

Bass, who served in the California state Assembly from 2005 to 2010 and has served in the U.S. House of Representatives since 2011, headed into the general election as the establishment candidate, backed by President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Barack Obama, among other big-name politicians.

Though she had the advantage when it came to name recognition and the support of many local, state and national Democrats, Caruso had the upper hand when it came to campaign finances.

The billionaire developer largely self-funded his campaign, which had spent more than $100 million on advertisements and other campaign expenditures before Election Day, while Bass’ campaign had spent a fraction of that amount.

Caruso had generally performed well among Latino voters and voters in the San Fernando Valley during the primary election, and he continued courting these voters leading up to the general election.

Bass, meanwhile, focused on her record as a Democrat and in supporting abortion rights. Her campaign took aims at Caruso for being a Republican as recently as 2019 and for previously donating to candidates who oppose abortion rights, though Caruso has said he’s pro-choice and that he left the Republican party because it stopped reflecting his values.

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A mid-October poll of likely voters, conducted for Southern California News Group, found that respondents thought Caruso would do a better job addressing key issues in four of five categories. Those included inflation and the economy, homelessness and poverty, crime and public safety, and managing the city’s finances. The candidates were virtually tied when asked who would do a better job dealing with City Hall corruption.

A separate poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, in late October found voters who prioritize coalition building among racial and ethnic groups were more likely to support Bass, who founded a South L.A. organization that addresses poverty, crime and violence among Black and Latino communities before she entered politics.