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Game Day: Breeders’ Cup is their top pick

Editor’s note: This is the Thursday, Nov. 3 edition of the “Game Day with Kevin Modesti” newsletter. To receive the newsletter in your inbox, sign up here.

Today’s Q&A with horse racing writer Art Wilson and handicapper Bob Mieszerski about this week’s Breeders’ Cup should interest readers who already follow racing and others who wonder what the fuss is about.

First, news:

Four Astros pitchers combined to throw a no-hitter against the Phillies to even the World Series 2-2.
The Lakers have won two in a row after a wild overtime victory over the Pelicans.
The Clippers survived again without Kawhi Leonard, beating the Rockets.
Cam Akers was back in the Rams’ practice facility and could get back in uniform.
Injuries and inactivity at the trade deadline left the Chargers with wide-receiver issues.
For UCLA, playing so many night football games has a dark side.

Now, let’s talk about the Breeders’ Cup World Championships, the 14 thoroughbred races with purses totaling $31 million that will be held Friday and Saturday at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington., Ky. Southern California-based Flightline will be an odds-on favorite in the main event, the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic for older horses. Total wagering on the races when they were held at Del Mar last year was more than $180 million.

Bob Mieszerski and Art Wilson have been paying attention to the Breeders’ Cup since it debuted in 1984 at the late, great Hollywood Park, and both consider the event to be the sport at its best, so I asked them to answer some questions about its history and what to look for this week.

Bob, who has been writing a graded handicap of Southern California races for the Southern California News Group papers since 2014, started making picks in print soon after he joined the Los Angeles Herald Examiner in 1978, and started covering the sport in addition to making selections in 1985 for the Herald and then the L.A. Times.

Art, who writes a racing column every Friday and covers major races for the SCNG papers, got his first byline on a big race for the San Gabriel Valley Tribune in 1978 by reporting on Triple Crown winner Affirmed leading all the way in the Hollywood Gold Cup.

You can get Art’s coverage, and picks for races at Santa Anita, Los Alamitos and Del Mar by Bob, Art, Eddie Wilson and Terry Turrell, in our Ponies Express email newsletter by signing up here.

“To me, there are few things in sports greater than the anticipation of a big race as the horses enter the gate,” Wilson says.

There are few races bigger than the ones at the Breeders’ Cup.

We chatted by email.

Q: Let me ask right away about the headliner in this year’s Breeders’ Cup. How good is Flightline, the 4-year-old colt from California who’s 3-5 on the morning line for the Breeders’ Cup Classic? What will Saturday’s race tell us about Flightline? Who could upset him?

Bob: Flightline is obviously a brilliant horse. His performance in the Pacific Classic was arguably the most impressive race visually since Secretariat’s Belmont. I think it is hasty, however, to call him one of the all-time greats because longevity is something he doesn’t have. He’s only raced five times since April of last year. That resume doesn’t compare to those of all-time greats like Spectacular Bid and Affirmed. The Bid ran – and won – five times as a 3-year-old before he won the Kentucky Derby. Affirmed went 5-for-5 in a span of two months with stakes wins coming in the San Felipe, Santa Anita Derby, Hollywood Derby and Kentucky Derby. And both of those horses were brilliant at ages 2, 3 and 4. If Flightline wins Saturday, I would love to see him continue to race in 2023, but I’m skeptical that will happen. His main competition figures to come from the 3-year-olds Epicenter, who I believe is clearly the best in his class – and Taiba.

Art: Setting aside the debate of whether Flightline has done enough to warrant being mentioned with all-time greats like Secretariat and Spectacular Bid, he’s one of the four best thoroughbreds of my lifetime. What he did in the Pacific Classic was off-the-charts phenomenal and he belongs on my list of greats that includes Secretariat, Spectacular Bid and Ruffian.

Q: You’ve both been around the Breeders’ Cup since it started in 1984. What is the event’s significance these days for horse people and horseplayers and other racing fans?

Art: It’s the Super Bowl of horse racing. It’s a great two days of racing that brings together, for the most part, the best racehorses the world has to offer. It still pales in comparison to the Kentucky Derby, the most famous horse race in this country, as far as popularity, but for the most part deciding year-end Eclipse Award winners during two days of action is a magnificent way to end the year.

Bob: I think the two BC days offer the sport’s best gambling of the year due to the large fields and horses converging from everywhere. I did prefer the original one-day event, but understand the reasons why – $$$ – the BC is now a two-day event. It’s nice to see championships decided on the track, and that is what happens often on these two days.

Q: Even a confident handicapper can find the Breeders’ Cup overwhelming with 14 races drawing horses of different ages and genders, from across the nation and Europe, to compete on dirt and turf at a variety of distances. Can you recommend an overall strategy for cutting through the confusion and finding worthwhile bets?

Bob: All of the wagering opportunities can be overwhelming, but sometimes it’s not best to overthink things. There are ways to watch videos of all of the competitors, so that can help point out some possible nuggets, and sometimes the lost art of betting to win and even place can be profitable on these two days because you often get overlaid prices on quality contenders. For those who like to play pick-threes, pick-fours or pick-fives, it helps to find one or two horses to key around and spread in the races which are more wide open. Also there’s no need to play every race. It’s OK to pass if you have no strong opinion in any given race.

Art: I think a horse has to go into these races in top form, so I will handicap with the idea I want a horse who finished in the top three in his or her final prep race except for maybe instances where a horse was greatly compromised by a horrendous trip. Give me horses who are not trying to do something for the first time. Also pay attention to jockey-trainer combinations and horses that are lightly raced and appear to be peaking at the right time. Taiba, in the Classic, is a great example of the latter.

Q: Are there one or two horses this year, hopefully horses with tantalizing odds, who are examples of your approach? To put it another way: Gimme a longshot!

Bob: A Friday longshot I’d consider is Comanche Country in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. She is facing better than she did in California, but is 3-for-3 in the U.S. and has the potent combination of Phil D’Amato, her trainer, and Umberto Rispoli, who is one of the country’s best grass riders. A Saturday upset possibility is Elite Power in the Sprint. He’s making his Grade I debut, but has won four in a row for Bill Mott and continues to improve. Think he can defeat a quality field that includes favored Jackie’s Warrior, who flopped at 1-2 in this race last year. Believe 6-1 is a fair price on Elite Power. Another horse on Saturday who could hit the board at a price is Law Professor in the Dirt Mile. Although he’s won twice on turf, I think he’s at his best on the main track. Could find his way into the exotics.

Art: This could be a very chalky Breeders’ Cup, what with Flightline, Cave Rock, Golden Pal and Jackie’s Warrior all sitting atop their divisions with impeccable resumes. Still, this is horse racing. Even Secretariat lost five times. I’m going to give you a crazy longshot in the Classic: Hot Rod Charlie. Here’s a horse that fires every time out but just can’t seem to break through with that one signature victory. I expect Flightline to cruise, but if something crazy happens – think Spectacular Bid in the Belmont – Hot Rod Charlie has every right to be standing in the winner’s circle after the race.

Q: With sports betting more and more available, is horse racing still a good option for gamblers seeking fun and profit?

Art: Horse racing is still the best betting opportunity out there. The odds and the chances for a life-changing score are much greater than betting a three-team football parlay. The early pick-five, to me, is the best bet out there. You can wager $36 and without a huge longshot on your ticket still walk away with $500 or more. It’s the one wager I’ll always strongly consider playing each time I’m at the track.

Bob: I think horse racing remains the best gambling option. There’s much better value in terms of odds, and rolling bets can be very lucrative if you’re able to string prices together. Plus there are new betting challenges every 30 minutes or so, while if you bet on a single sporting event it will be hours before you know if you won or lost plus the returns aren’t as enriching.

Q: Let’s end on a high note. What’s your proudest memory as a Breeders’ Cup bettor through the years? Not that anyone asked, but mine is the Saturday in 2013 at Santa Anita when I perceived the end of a track bias favoring front-runners, keyed Mucho Macho Man with four other closers in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and hit a $304.40 trifecta. No matter how big or small the payoff, it’s always fun to solve the puzzle.

Art: I bet Honest Lady in the 2000 Sprint, and although I didn’t win, I was proud that my longshot selection had run so well (finishing second at 31-1 odds). I also had win money on Cat Thief when he won the Classic in 1999 (at 19-1).

Bob: Two scores stick out. I made a sizable win bet on — and picked on top in the L.A. Times – Thirty Slews, who was 18-1 in the 1992 Sprint and also had the exacta with Meafara. It was the first BC win for trainer Bob Baffert. Also, with a partner, I hit the pick-six at the 1988 Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs. Would have had the only ticket if Winning Colors had held on to defeat Personal Ensign in the Distaff. Have to credit the late trainer Ed Gregson for steering us towards Is It True, who upset Easy Goer in the Juvenile that year. He said at dinner the night before he trained Roman Rockette, the dam of Is It True, and she moved up on wet tracks, and the track was off on BC day in 1988.

Thanks for doing this, Bob and Art. Good luck Friday and Saturday.

TODAY

Kings try to complete another winning trip when they face the Blackhawks in Chicago (5:30 p.m., BSW). Here’s a preview.
Ducks try to extend their two-game win streak and the Canucks’ poor start when the teams meet in Vancouver (7 p.m., BSSC). The latest.

READERS REACT

Yesterday’s newsletter asked, Do you agree with Bill Walton that moving to the Big Ten would not be in the best interests of UCLA athletics?

Twitter user SeattleRams answered: “I don’t think that he’s wrong in that this move feels like it was done with UCLA football in mind, and not the other sports. With that said, I’m not against it as a lifelong UCLA fan. The super conference is the way college sports is moving. Either join in or be left behind.”

NEXT QUESTION

If you’re a horse racing fan, what’s your fondest memory from past Breeders’ Cups, either as a spectator or a bettor? Respond by email KModesti@scng.com or on Twitter (@KevinModesti).

280 CHARACTERS

LeBron to Russ(!) for three(!!).

— Kyle Goon (@kylegoon) November 3, 2022

– Lakers writer Kyle Goon (@kylegoon) tweeting about an early surprise – Russell Westbrook’s fifth three-point basket of the season – in the Lakers’ win last night.

1,000 WORDS

History makers: Ryan Pressly, who closed out the no-hitter, and Cristian Javier, who started it, celebrate the Astros’ 5-0 victory over the Phillies last night in Philadelphia. Photo is by Sarah Stier for Getty Images.

TALK TO ME

Thanks for reading the newsletter. Send suggestions, comments and questions by email at KModesti@scng.com and via Twitter @KevinModesti.

Editor’s note: Thanks for reading the “Game Day with Kevin Modesti” newsletter. To receive the newsletter in your inbox, sign up here.

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