The first NET rankings of the season were released Monday, with just four Pac-12 teams in the range that suggests NCAA Tournament at-large berths could be forthcoming: UCLA, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State.
For everyone else, substantial improvement is required.
The NET (or NCAA Evaluation Tool) serves a vital role in the selection and seeding process. Although teams can gain or lose ground once league play begins, the non-conference results create a multiplier effect that either raises the floor or lowers the ceiling for a given conference.
The Pac-12 is on pace for its worst non-conference showing in decades with a winning percentage of just 59.3 percent.
A top-40 NET ranking at the end of the season usually indicates an at-large berth is forthcoming.
Four teams need to hold their ground: The Bruins, Wildcats, Sun Devils and Utes.
Six teams have varying degrees of work ahead: Oregon, WSU, Washington, Colorado, USC and Stanford.
Two teams, Oregon State and Cal, are buried so deep in the NET that the at-large path is already blocked.
To the power ratings …
(NET rankings through Monday)
1. UCLA (7-2/2-0)
Results: won at Stanford 80-66, beat Oregon 65-56
NET ranking: 14
Next up: vs. Denver (Saturday)
Comment: From the department of picking nits: The Bruins aren’t getting much production from their bench. They have three months to find answers.
2. Arizona (7-1/1-1)
Last week: 1
Results: lost at Utah 81-66, beat Cal 81-68
NET ranking: 27
Next up: vs. Indiana (Saturday in Las Vegas)
Comment: With the Hoosiers this weekend and Tennessee on Dec. 17, the Wildcats have two chances to polish their resume before entering conference play, where marquee matchups will be few and far between.
3. Arizona State (8-1/2-0)
Last week: 3
Results: won at Colorado 60-59, beat Stanford 68-64
NET ranking: 35
Next up: at SMU (Wednesday)
Comment: Any weekend sweep is worth celebrating. When you shoot 9-of-49 from 3-point range and still win twice, it’s just a tad sweeter.
4. Utah (7-2/2-0)
Last week: 7
Results: beat Arizona 81-66, won at WSU 67-65
NET ranking: 19
Next up: vs. Jacksonville State (Thursday)
Comment: Every season brings at least one major upside surprise. Here’s the frontrunner to fill that role.
5. Washington (7-2/1-1)
Last week: 4
Results: lost at OSU 66-65, beat Colorado 73-63
NET ranking: 109
Next up: at Gonzaga (Friday)
Comment: We suspect the Huskies will finish with a better record in the games Keion Brooks isn’t their leading scorer than in the games he is.
6. USC (6-3/2-0)
Last week: 8
Results: won at Cal 66-51, beat OSU 63-62
NET ranking: 148
Next up: vs. Cal State Fullerton (Wednesday)
Comment: No team had a softer start to Pac-12 play than the Trojans. Anything less than 2-0 would have been problematic.
7. Colorado (4-5/0-2)
Last week: 5
Results: lost to ASU 60-59, lost at Washington 73-63
NET ranking: 65
Next up: vs. Colorado State (Thursday)
Comment: First-rate wins are vital to outperforming the NET rankings on Selection Sunday. CU’s victory over Tennessee could be its lifeboat.
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8. Oregon (4-5/1-1)
Last week: 6
Results: beat WSU 74-60, lost at UCLA 65-56
NET ranking: 93
Next up: vs. Nevada (Saturday)
Comment: The Ducks are steadily digging a NET hole from which there is no escape, just like last year.
9. Oregon State (4-5/1-1)
Last week: 10
Results: beat Washington 66-65, lost at USC 63-62
NET ranking: 229
Next up: at Texas A&M (Sunday)
Comment: One basket from a 2-0 start to conference play … and one basketball from an 0-2 start to conference play.
10. Stanford (3-6/0-2)
Last week: 9
Results: lost to UCLA 80-66, lost at ASU 68-64
NET ranking: 146
Next up: vs. Green Bay (Dec. 16)
Comment: The Cardinal is shooting 28.2 percent from 3-point range. Get that number to 33 percent, and it has a chance to make something of the season.
11. Washington State (3-4/0-2)
Last week: 11
Results: lost at Oregon 74-60, lost to Utah 67-65
NET ranking: 76
Next up: vs. Northern Kentucky (Wednesday)
Comment: Only two chances left to record a quality non-conference win: against UNLV next week and Baylor before Christmas.
12. Cal (0-9/0-2)
Last week: 12
Results: lost to USC 66-51, lost at Arizona 81-68
NET ranking: 340
Next up: vs. Eastern Washington (Wednesday)
Comment: We suspect Cal’s ranking is the lowest ever for a Pac-12 team in either the NET or RPI. It’s hard to be this bad, folks.
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