One year into Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia is a pariah to most countries in the free world. But to China, Russia is one of its most important allies.
Six decades after ideological differences between the world’s communist powers resulted in the Sino-Soviet split, China and Russia have reunited, driven by their shared quest for a global “redistribution of power” and desire to dismantle the U.S.-led world order.
This “alliance of autocracies,” as Steven Lee Myers aptly deemed it, is built on a mutual belief that the West’s supremacy has declined, and that as great powers, China and Russia are entitled to rule their own spheres of influence and to use brute force to suppress human rights, self-determination and democracy.
This guiding principle puts all free nations around the world at risk, and necessitates that the United States — as the leader of global democracies — articulates a coherent foreign policy strategy for navigating the inherent dangers of the deepening relationship between the two revisionist powers.
This is especially critical in light of recent reports from American intelligence agencies that China may supply Russia with weapons to aid its war against Ukraine, which would be an alarming escalation and a break from China’s ostensibly “neutral” stance on the war.
To be clear, it is incumbent on the White House to communicate to Beijing that supplying lethal aid to Russia would be met with economic consequences and cause irreparable damage to China’s relationship with the West. We must also make clear that China stands to benefit more from inclusion in the U.S.-led world, not standing alone with Russia, and should keep diplomatic lines open in order to avoid unintended conflict.
While Russia desperately needs China to stabilize its economy amid unprecedented sanctions, President Xi’s calculus is that Russia is useful ballast in his larger battle with the U.S. and our allies. Further, if Putin is defeated in Ukraine, China will likely lose access to cheap Russian energy, and will have a mercurial, humiliated and nuclear-armed dictator on its northern border.
Some had hoped that the two country’s divergent geopolitical objectives, and the combined economic and political impacts from Russia’s protracted war would entice Chinese President Xi Jinping to reconsider whether the “no limits” friendship between the two nations actually did have its limit.
Instead, the anti-democratic alliance between the two countries — which is resentful of American hegemony and committed to tearing down the liberal world order that has prevailed for more than eight decades — is growing stronger.
I have previously written about the forces that have driven the burgeoning alliance between China and Russia, including in “The Russia-China Axis: The New Cold War and America’s Crisis” as well as “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise, America in Retreat.”
I’ve argued that the passive foreign policy of former President Obama and the isolationist tendencies of former President Trump created a leadership vacuum on the world stage and damaged essential relationships with our allies in Asia, Europe and the Middle East.
Moreover, the Biden administration oversaw a tumultuous withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan that severely undermined the U.S.’s credibility in the eyes of many countries, and signaled to autocrats like Putin and Xi that America was weak.
While President Biden has thus far led an impressively strong and united NATO response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there are signs that public support for the war is fading, as just 20% of Americans now say the U.S. is not doing enough to support Ukraine, less than half of the share of Americans who said that one year ago (42%), per recent polling.
With a reelection campaign on the horizon, and opposition to the war growing on the political right, Biden could soon lack both the political capital and the actual power to ensure that the U.S. sustains its current level of support for Ukraine.
In turn, Putin is betting that Western fatigue will hand him the victory his mauled army has so far been unable to achieve; meanwhile, Xi is sizing up America’s will to defend free and sovereign nations, should he decide to invade Taiwan.
Both must be proven wrong.
For the West to prevail, the United States must lead the fight with a strategy suited to the complex challenges we face.
Immediately, the Biden administration can send a strong message to Beijing and Moscow by ramping up the number of U.S. soldiers we have stationed in Asia, as a deterrent to Chinese designs on Taiwan.
Additionally, in light of Putin’s decision to pull out of the bilateral “New START” treaty — intended to limit the nuclear weapons both nations could deploy — the U.S. should restart and enhance our nuclear weapons development program.
In many ways, the strategic approach we need closely resembles the one former President Ronald Reagan employed to grind down the Soviet Union. We must improve engagement with our allies, demonstrate America’s commitment to defending democracy and use the full economic and military potential of the combined Western world in order to uphold the values we hold so dear.
Make no mistake, this goes far beyond the current conflict in Ukraine. An alliance between two of the world’s most powerful despots — leading an “axis of evil” with Iran and North Korea — poses a unique and immense threat to the democratic values we cherish.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.