Ukraine can prevail over Russia, but risks remain

Ukraine’s successful effort to liberate the city of Kherson, which Russia annexed in September, proves that the Ukrainian military has what it takes to defy the odds and win this war with continued Western support.

However, the subsequent discovery that Russia committed at least 400 war crimes, including human torture, during its occupation of the city underscores the immense hardships that the Ukrainian people have endured, as well as the challenges that still lie ahead.

In that same vein, the reports of Russia’s dictatorial rule of Kherson – in which Ukrainian national songs was banned, speaking Ukrainian was criminalized, and schools were forced to adopt Russian curriculums – highlight the risks to Ukraine, and indeed to the free world, if the West wavers in this critical phase of the war.

While a Ukrainian victory would ultimately be due to the enormous sacrifices made by its people, soldiers, and leaders, Western aid – both military and humanitarian – has been essential in helping Ukraine fend off the much more powerful Russian military.

In an effort to break Ukraine’s will, in recent weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin has launched hundreds of missile attacks on civilian infrastructure such as power plants and fuel depots. By targeting Ukraine’s energy grid as winter approaches, Putin is seeking to create a humanitarian crisis so vast that, even if Ukraine wins the war, they will have done so at a tremendous cost.

Russia’s attacks on civilian infrastructure are indeed harmful, but something even more dangerous is happening: Western support for Ukraine appears to be eroding due to the political and economic pressures facing leaders in the U.S. and European nations.

In the U.S., prominent Republicans have already signaled that their party will look to scale back aid to Ukraine when they take control of the House of Representatives next year.

Kevin McCarthy, the next Speaker of the House, said that a Republican majority would not write a “blank check” for future aid packages. McCarthy’s remarks reflect a growing sense within his party that support for Ukraine should be curbed as the U.S. struggles with high inflation and a growing national deficit.

In the early days of the war, only fringe Republicans were pushing to halt U.S. aid to Ukraine. However, more traditional Republicans have shifted their stance in recent months, and support for Ukraine has declined among Republican voters as a result.

Roughly one-half (48%) of Republican voters now say the U.S. is doing too much to help Ukraine, an eight-fold increase since March (6%), per recent Wall Street Journal polling. While 81% of Democrats and nearly half of Independents support additional aid to Ukraine, only one-third of Republicans say the same.

To be sure, the Republican Party’s poor showing in this year’s midterm elections – in which they lost the Senate and only won the House by a handful of seats – means that the GOP will not be able to significantly curtail support for Ukraine. Though, it is clear that this incoming Congress will be less accommodating to President Biden’s aid requests than the current one.

While incoming Speaker McCarthy has clarified that he supports Ukraine and only seeks more accountability in U.S. aid packages, his “blank check” remark was gift to Putin, whose primary goal is to erode Western support for Ukraine.

To that end, Putin has weaponized Russian energy in an attempt to force governments in the European Union to choose between supporting Ukraine and keeping their citizens warm and safe this winter.

To date, E.U. governments – with the exception of Hungary – have been reliably in Ukraine’s corner, but European support for Ukraine will soon face its toughest test.

On December 5th, Europe’s ban on Russian oil shipments by sea kicks in, which is intended to deprive Putin’s war machine of crucial funding, though could seriously disrupt global energy markets. Europe’s decades-long dependence on Russian oil also means that cracks in the embargo may appear before it has any real impact on Russia’s ability to finance its war.

Even though E.U. nations have had months to prepare for this ban to take effect, the resulting increase in energy prices may prove too costly for countries already struggling with inflation.

President Biden has done a remarkable job thus far of rallying Europe and other democratic nations to support Ukraine. But as the president faces mounting political pressure to decrease U.S. involvement in the war, he cannot waver. Biden must remind his European counterparts as well as all citizens of the Western world that, while we are paying the price for democracy in dollars or euros, Ukrainians are paying the price with their lives.

Ukrainian soldiers will keep making these enormous sacrifices, despite comments by U.S. General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, who recently suggested that a military victory cannot be won, therefore Ukraine should consider peace talks with Russia.

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Since Russia’s invasion, Ukraine has put up a remarkable fight. Their military successfully pushed Russian soldiers out of Kyiv, Kharkiv, and now Kherson, and liberated hundreds of smaller towns. Russia’s army has been degraded into a shell of its former self, and discontent is rapidly rising inside the country.

However, Ukraine has also lost so much. More than 30 million Ukrainians have been displaced and up to 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or wounded, along with 40,000 civilians killed, according to General Milley.

Those are tragic figures – yet, they underscore Ukraine’s persistence.

Ultimately, they should serve as a reminder to officials in Washington, D.C. and diplomats in Brussels that Ukraine is on the front lines of the global battle for democracy – a battle that, if the West continues its involvement, will prove triumphant in the end.

Douglas Schoen is a longtime political consultant.