Editor’s note: This is the Thursday, Nov. 17 edition of the “Game Day with Kevin Modesti” newsletter. To receive the newsletter in your inbox, sign up here.
Good morning. In most ways, USC is a much better team than it was a year ago and better than UCLA going into the rivals’ game at the Rose Bowl on Saturday. Most but not all, leaving room for a minor upset.
Let’s look at that possibility after a glance at the news:
The Kings got a hat trick from Trevor Moore to beat the Oilers in Edmonton.
The Rams think quarterback Matthew Stafford will return from concussion protocol to play Sunday in New Orleans.
The Chargers are less certain about wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams facing the Chiefs.
The Angels’ Shohei Ohtani finished fourth behind Justin Verlander in American League Cy Young Award voting, and the Dodgers’ Julio Urias came in third behind Sandy Alcantara in the National League.
Baseball’s ban on defensive shifts raises questions about pichers like Tyler Anderson, who moved from the Dodgers to the Angels.
And a day after USC landed the top women’s basketball recruit in Sierra Canyon High’s Juju Watkins, it got maybe the top men’s basketball recruit in point guard Isaiah Collier.
USC (9-1 overall, 7-1 in the Pac-12, seventh in the nation in the AP and College Football Playoff rankings) is a 2½-point favorite over UCLA (8-2, 5-2, 16th).
One thing we can be sure won’t happen (can’t we?) is a repeat of the Bruins’ 62-33 wipeout of the Trojans at the Coliseum last November.
But in the one way the Trojans aren’t better than they were last year, they’re remarkably, almost comically the same. Here’s where they stack up nationally in defense against the run, according to TeamRankings.com, going by average yards per rush: 2021, 94th; 2022, 94th.
If there’s anytime that Achilles’ heel is going to catch up to the Trojans, it’s in a game against a Bruins offense that’s first in the nation with 6.3 yards per rushing attempt and a running back in Zach Charbonnet who’s fourth in the nation with 7.5.
That potential mismatch is why UCLA has a real shot at winning and bringing further chaos to the Pac-12 championship race.
A few weeks ago, I watched both UCLA and USC win games one Saturday and then wrote about the two teams’ key challenges before their clash: “UCLA has to keep Charbonnet upright and leaning forward as he plays a rugged running game. USC has to get its defense healthy and patch up those holes.”
As it turns out, Charbonnet would miss a game with an unspecified injury. But he returned to carry the ball for 181 yards and three touchdowns in the Bruins’ loss to Arizona last Saturday.
As it turns out, the Trojans’ defense showed some progress, as beat man Adam Grosbard writes in today’s paper, in the win over Colorado last Friday. But is it enough?
Adam’s story properly looks first at the Trojans’ challenge in facing Bruins quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, before saying: “Then there’s also running back Zach Charbonnet to contend with after his 167-yard performance against USC a year ago.”
When Charbonnet is in the “also” category, UCLA has a pretty good offense.
USC does too, and even with leading rusher Travis Dye out for the season, quarterback Caleb Williams could be a mismatch for the UCLA pass defense.
But maybe not as big a mismatch as Charbonnet, running behind a smart and solid offensive line, against the USC run defense.
Prediction: UCLA 41, USC 38.
TODAY
Clippers host the Eastern Conference-worst Pistons (7:30 p.m., BSSC) to start a stretch with five of six games at home.
Ducks visit the Jets in Winnipeg (5 p.m., BSW) in the first of a three-game trip. They’re 3-0 in overtime games (don’t ask about the rest).
UC Riverside, off to a 1-1 start, has a tough road game at Creighton, 3-0 and No. 9 in the AP poll(5:30 p.m., FS1).
Cal Baptist, 1-1 in its first season of Division 1 tournament eligibility, goes to Seattle to face Washington, which is 3-0 (8 p.m., Pac12N).
READERS REACT
The newsletter asked: Do you hope the University of California regents block UCLA’s plan to move with USC from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten in 2024? It’s on the regents’ agenda today.
Most respondents said they hope the regents don’t block the move.
Wrote David Gershwin: “No on the merits. Also, no on the fact that a 31-year-old UC regents ruling gives any UC campus chancellor the ability to negotiate their own contracts. They can’t just call a mulligan because they don’t like the outcome.”
NEXT QUESTION
What will the USC-UCLA score be on Saturday? Most accurate prediction – assuming someone comes close – wins the valuable prize of recognition in an upcoming newsletter. Respond by email (Kmodesti@scng.com) or on Twitter (@KevinModesti).
280 CHARACTERS
Shohei Ohtani finished 4th in the AL Cy Young voting.
(Also, he has hit HRs against all of three of the guys ahead of him.) pic.twitter.com/ILibFOH3Ab
— Jeff Fletcher (@JeffFletcherOCR) November 17, 2022
– Angels beat writer Jeff Fletcher ((at)JeffFletcherOCR) after Ohtani placed behind Justin Verlander, Dylan Cease and Alek Manoah.
1,000 WORDS
Getting ready: Argentina’s Lionel Messi has no trouble taking on the entire United Arab Emirates defense by himself on his way to scoring the fourth goal in a 5-0 victory in a World Cup warmup match yesterday in Abu Dhabi. The World Cup starts Sunday in Qatar. Photo is by Martin Dokoupil for Getty Images.
TALK TO ME
Thanks for reading this, the 100th edition of the newsletter – published 100 days in a row – since it became Game Day With Kevin Modesti in August. Send suggestions, comments and questions by email (KModesti@scng.com) and via Twitter (@KevinModesti).
Editor’s note: Thanks for reading the “Game Day with Kevin Modesti” newsletter. To receive the newsletter in your inbox, sign up here.
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