The bad news: USC and UCLA both need to do some serious work – and need some substantial help – if they’re going to figure out a way into the final four and earn a place in this season’s College Football Playoff, which will culminate with the national championship on Jan. 9 at SoFi Stadium.
Both 7-1, the Trojans are at No. 9 and the Bruins check in at No. 12 in the College Football Playoff’s initial Top 25 ranking that was released Tuesday.
The good news? It’s not where you start; it’s how you finish. And the final rankings don’t come until Dec. 4.
The better news: We care.
“We,” is in the L.A.-area public, the fans and media who follow the local college football programs.
The people actively involved in both teams’ fates? They’re all going to go out of their way to signal to the world that they don’t care. Above it. Too busy. Or just too aware, too wise.
“I spend not 1% of my energy, brain power, attention,” USC coach Lincoln Riley told reporters Tuesday. “I cannot care less.”
UCLA coach Chip Kelly shrugged it off when he apparently got the CFP poll and the weekly AP rankings confused at practice on Monday. “Oh. Yeah.”
But we can care.
This is USC’s highest initial ranking and, for all intents, the first time its fans got to experience what it’s like to anticipate the big reveal.
For the Bruins, it’s the first time in seven years they’re in the CFP rankings. It’s also their highest initial ranking and 11th appearance since the CFP began in the 2014 season. But it’s not their highest ranking ever; UCLA reached No. 8 after beating USC, 38-20, in Week 14 of that inaugural CFP season.
It’s worth noting that USC’s opening ranking matches its No. 9 position in the current Associated Press poll; UCLA’s comes in a couple of slots lower than its current No. 10 AP ranking.
Sure, the 13 members of the selection committee who decided as much – a group, the CFP boasts on its website, that has achieved 26 degrees of higher learning, including 11 master’s degrees and two doctorates – aren’t supposed to consider other polls.
They’re expected to apply their own expertise in weighing teams’ records, strength of schedule, head-to-head matchup results and common opponents. So, to them, it’s No. 1 Tennessee, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Clemson, all 8-0.
A few cogs below, it would seem that UCLA might have earned a boost over USC on the basis of the Bruins’ victory over Utah, one of their two common opponents so far. Especially because the Trojans lost to the Utes (who, by the way, are 6-2 and ranked 14th in the CFP poll, among the five Pac-12 teams included, along with No. 8 Oregon and No. 23 Oregon State).
For what it’s worth, UCLA’s 42-32 victory over Utah came at home and USC’s was a 43-42 thriller in an emotionally charged atmosphere at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City. But the circumstances of those Utah results seem to have had less to do with the committee’s calculation than what happened in Eugene, Oregon, on Oct. 22.
Explained Boo Corrigan, the CFP Selection Committee chair, on a conference call: “I think the loss, UCLA, how they lost to Oregon (7-1) really was a topic of conversation.”
Conversely, the Ducks’ ball possession clinic in their 45-30 victory over UCLA was a big part of what landed them in the top 10 despite their ugly 49-3 season-opening loss to Georgia, Corrigan said: “The win over UCLA has gone a long way.”
What’ll go a really long way? If both L.A. teams show up to their Nov. 19 showdown at the Rose Bowl with matching 9-1 records.
Before then, UCLA will face Arizona State and Arizona (teams that are a combined 6-10) and USC has Cal and Colorado (a combined 4-12) on the docket.
If they both win both games, and if there’s sufficient movement ahead of them in the CFP poll, that game could put the winner in striking distance of consideration for football’s final four.
Especially if the winner can add another victory in the Pac-12 championship game.
Hey, it’s possible!
After all, six times teams ranked Nos. 7-15 in the initial CFP ranking wound up in the playoff – and three of those teams were Riley-coached Oklahoma squads.
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In 2015 when he was the offensive coordinator, the Sooners started ranked 15th and finished fourth, and then in 2018 and 2019, when Riley was the head coach, they climbed from seventh to fourth and from ninth to fourth, respectively.
Or they could keep winning and get no help from above in the poll. Riley knows about that too: His 2016 Sooners, who won their final four games after the CFP ranked them No. 14 initially, moved up only as far as No. 7.
“I don’t even look,” Riley insisted. “I don’t. Ask all my friends back in Oklahoma, I don’t care about them … it matters none.”
What really matters is being able to “control the controllables” as USC posted on its Trojans football Twitter account – one tweet before sharing an image of the gleaming national championship trophy and the team’s No. 9 ranking.
As it stands now, the Bruins and Trojans both have a little bit of a long shot at a national title, and for that they should feel proud.
Or not, knowing it matters naught – except for having stirred fresh intrigue among a pair of hopeful fan bases. And that actually ranks for something.
#CFBPlayoff pic.twitter.com/aesfhQtUaa
— USC Football (@uscfb) November 1, 2022
𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗹 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀. #TheRecap pic.twitter.com/ed66w26Mew
— USC Football (@uscfb) November 1, 2022
#⃣1⃣2⃣ @CFBPlayoff pic.twitter.com/VmhefSNxcm
— UCLA Football (@UCLAFootball) November 1, 2022