The ‘Trump penalty’ will continue to haunt Republicans

It’s the red wave that wasn’t.

Republicans underperformed expectations in the 2020 midterms, winning a very slight majority in the House while failing to win back the Senate.

Republicans were expected to win big in the House, while winning the Senate was always going to be a challenge. But with Democratic President Joe Biden suffering dismal approval ratings and with high inflation as a top concern among voters, victory seemed in sight.

While backlash to abortion restrictions undercut Republican prospects, extremely poor candidate quality was a major drag in races throughout the country.

Many of the candidates who underperformed were distinctively Trump-backed candidates. Pennsylvania voters elected a Democrat whose lone debate performance showed a man totally incapable at the moment of communicating effectively after suffering a stroke, because the Trump-backed Republican candidate was not quite electable — or at least not more electable than a guy recovering from a stroke.

Trump-backed Hershel Walker failed to secure an easily winnable Senate seat in Georgia. How do we know it’s easily winnable? The fact that it’s Georgia should suffice as an answer, but for those who prefer more data-driven answers, Georgia’s Republican governor, Brian Kemp, was re-elected by a 7.5 percentage-point margin.

Not only did Kemp greatly outperform Walker, but he did so while opposed by Trump, who even backed a challenger to Kemp in the primary.

Though some of Trump’s preferred candidates won, it’s obvious that he was a liability to Republicans across the country.

The New York Times found that in House races, Trump-backed candidates underperformed others by approximately five points. The conservative American Enterprise Institute found similar results, with Axios calling this the “Trump penalty.”

And yet overall, the country increasingly turned toward Republicans, according to The Washington Post. This is promising for Republicans.

Republican House candidates also outperformed Trump’s 2020 results in 344 contests — and that’s out of 435 total districts.

In the Senate, Republican Leader Mitch McConnell handily beat back a leadership challenge from Florida Sen. Rick Scott, who was backed by Trump. In fact, Trump made defeating McConnell a top priority, but most GOP senators ignored his preference.

Trump announced this week his candidacy for president in 2024. He hopefully won’t be the only Republican running.

Recent polls suggest Trump’s support among Republican voters is softening, with the momentum shifting toward Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who won his re-election by a decisive margin and was one of the brightest points in an otherwise disappointing Republican midterm.

Of course, it seemed the winds were shifting away from Trump not too long ago in the wake of Jan. 6. However, Trump eventually regained control of the party.

Trump still enjoys a solid amount of support in the Republican Party, making him formidable regardless of who challenges him. But it’s clear at this point that Trump is not the strongest candidate for Republicans in 2024.

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Time will tell if it’s DeSantis or another candidate who would give the party the best chance of winning. It seems unlikely anyone will be able to do it without first vanquishing Trump.

The New York Times pointed out that five of the last six presidential campaigns were decided by fewer than five points, which is why the Trump penalty is so noteworthy.

I’ve argued extensively why Republicans should reject Trump on moral and ideological grounds. The midterms offer purely political reasons why the GOP should find a new standard bearer.

The path forward for Republicans and for the country is to move on from Trump.

Follow Matt on Twitter @FlemingWords